From Reluctant Admiration to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A shock assault on the capital under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force announces its plan to rule indefinitely.

That is precisely how Russia's president envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Russia once planned, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fueled a mood of introspection among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. But offering any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with Trump on that issue far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”