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Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the apparent challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often overthink day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

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