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Ouch. On one hand, the nation's protracted bid to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to host the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next November.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. While the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, host and effective event manager, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to together address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. The system is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to persuade them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a reflection of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the heft to confront the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a summit obstructed from the leadership if his administration managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was needed. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader directing proceedings who can listen, build consensus and achieve an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement appearing as the best chance available to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific, Australia and the global community. This attempt is justified.