Why Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Putin Concerning Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming American-Russian leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump said he planned to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs White House empty-handed
The frequently changing meeting is another twist in Trump's attempts to broker an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia resolved," he declared.
Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but gave Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a long record of siding with Israel dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The American leader, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the global economy and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and suspending arms shipments to the country - then to back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
Trump often boasts about his ability to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the war any nearer a peaceful end.
The Russian president may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called the US president who then promoted the potential summit in Hungary.
The following day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader later made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
So, in a short period, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately urging Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – including land Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on advocating a truce along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign last year, Trump vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, admitting that ending the war is turning out harder than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties desires, or is able to, give up the fight.